PotashCorp je jedan od najvećih proizvođača gnojiva i dao je svoj pogled u vezi događanja u periodu od 2009. do 2010. u ovoj analizi ocjenjuju ako se svjetsko gospodarstvo oporavi od krize, a po podacima se oporavlja taj oporavak dovesti će
do znatnog povećanja potražnje za gnojivom i kažu rast cijena gnojiva je neodgodiv.
Analiza je na engleskom.......
Given the essential role fertilizer plays in food production, demand for potash and phosphate cannot be deferred indefinitely, as removing essential crop nutrients from the soil today means more must be applied tomorrow. With rising populations, fundamental shifts in dietary practices to more meat protein and fruits and vegetables, along with increasingly limited land and water availability, we anticipate long-term pressure on the global food system. We believe that economic uncertainty has resulted in inadequate nutrient replacement to soils in all major agricultural regions, creating a void that must be filled. In some regions, nutrients resident in the soil and exceptional growing conditions can temporarily distract attention from this underlying issue, but unsustainable fertilizer practices cannot continue if the world's need for food is to be met.
The imminent need for improved soil fertility around the world is beginning to bring much-needed clarity to nutrient markets. Recently announced contracts between major potash suppliers and India's fertilizer buyers demonstrate customer understanding of the premium value and very different long-term supply/demand fundamentals for potash. In contrast to phosphate and nitrogen realized prices, which have reverted near 2006 levels, India's recent potash settlements equate to a level nearly triple our realized offshore prices of three years ago. While these prices are 26 percent below the record contract prices of last year, historical and relative context is important: this is one of the worst economic downturns we have ever seen, and we have just exited a fertilizer year in which global potash shipments were more than 30 percent lower than the previous year.
We believe a return to normal potash demand - and demand growth - will be driven not only by the need to replenish soil nutrients but also by renewed customer confidence in pricing. Fertilizer dealers make money by buying when they believe they can capture a positive margin, and many were shaken by the economic downturn and the rapid decline in phosphate and nitrogen pricing. We have seen India resume potash purchasing, which we expect will be followed by significant interest from the large Brazilian market, and we anticipate that customers worldwide will commit with confidence to new orders and initiate the lengthy process of refilling the potash pipeline.
We believe this situation could be similar to 2006, when extended contract negotiations pushed significant potash sales back to the latter half of the year and, more importantly, were the precursor to the strong demand rebound in 2007 and 2008. The current circumstances are even more dramatic because of the extent and duration of destocking that has occurred. With more than 14 million tonnes of global potash production curtailed so far this year, we expect a strong rebound in 2010 potash sales volumes to tighten supply/demand fundamentals.
We anticipate global potash demand in 2010 to be in the range of 55-60 million tonnes, depending on the pace of improvement in the world economy and related crop commodity prices. If economic recovery lags and consumers, including those buying grain and oilseeds, remain cautious, the need to replenish soil fertility could drive a rebound to the lower end of the range. If customer confidence and normal buying patterns return, grain markets could reflect both rising demand and global production shortfalls due to poor fertility practices during this recession. Higher crop prices could once again motivate farmers to maximize production and could drive potash sales volumes to the high end of that range next year. At this level we believe global producers would be near operational capacity.
We expect that the potash inventories built by producers during the downturn will supply immediate needs, but with low inventories in the broader supply chain, warehouses are expected to empty quickly as demand returns. We believe meeting longer-term demand growth will present a greater challenge. Building potash capacity requires considerable cost and a long time to execute, so sufficiently high potash margins are necessary to justify the investment. In our view, margins have not reached a level that justifies the cost of a greenfield mine. Recently settled contract prices have made this investment even more challenging.
We believe these issues further enhance the window of opportunity for our expansion projects in Saskatchewan and New Brunswick, which will be completed in a shorter time frame and at a significant discount to the estimated cost of a greenfield mine. These projects are expected to be completed on schedule, increasing our constructed capacity to 18 million tonnes by the end of 2012 with a steady ramp-up between now and the end of 2014.
We now expect 2009 potash sales volumes to be in the range of 4.5-5.0 million tonnes. As we have for the past two decades, we will match our production to demand as it returns market-by-market through the second half of the year. With our current operational capacity of approximately 11.5 million tonnes, further production curtailments above the 4.7 million tonnes already announced this year will be required. We now anticipate potash gross margin for 2009 to be in the range of $1.2-$1.5 billion.
With lower forecast potash volumes, we now anticipate our 2009 annual effective tax rate will be in the range of 14-16 percent, with the remaining quarters at approximately 23-25 percent. Provincial mining and other taxes are now forecast within a range of 4-5 percent of total potash gross margin as a result of lower volumes increasing the impact that our deductible potash capital expenditures are expected to have on the profit tax component of these taxes. We now anticipate other income to be slightly above 2008 levels.
PotashCorp is expecting third-quarter net income per share to be in the range of $0.80-1.20. For the full year, we anticipate earnings to be in the range of $4.00-5.00 per share.
Conclusion
"We have often said that the demand for our life-giving nutrients does not grow in a straight line, but we believe the upward trend is undeniable," said Doyle. "After almost a year of unprecedented global destocking, we are now beginning to experience the re-emergence of demand in our key markets. As farmers around the world respond to their noble calling of feeding the world, we expect this will trigger a multi-year process of nutrient replenishment, particularly potash. We will be ready to supply their growing needs and, at the same time, reward our shareholders."
